To the surprise of no one, Barack Obama has won the Wyoming caucus, further pinning Hillary down in the delegate count. Yes, Obama does better in the caucus states, he having won 13 to Clinton's 3. The Clinton machine derides the success he has in the caucuses because they are not, perhaps, as "democratic" as a primary. And in the primaries she does considerably better. Some have posited that people are less likely to show their latent racist tendencies in the public atmosphere of the caucus. But this is baloney -- the misogynists would also have less opportunity in public to be themselves.
No, Obama wins in the caucuses because only the committed and the informed attend the caucuses. And Obama does better across the board -- among whites, the working class, everyone -- who pays close attention to the race. Clinton is the default candidate, which is why she wins more in primaries. Those who have not paid close attention to the race know her name and so they support her. But their numbers decrease every place Obama campaigns -- which bodes well for the general election. Besides, Obama will have to broaden his base of support: he can't rely on all the black voters, college students, and upscale independents who helped him win the Wyoming caucus.
4 comments:
Honestly, my biggest worry at this point is that whoever wins the nomination will have alienated the other's supporters enough that McCain wins.
Of course, this is more likely to happen if Clinton gets the nom, in which case the Democrats will probably lose all of the Sullivan-type independents.
I'm still a little unclear as to why you're supporting him though, as I would think Hillary's confrontational approach to politics and relatively hard-line foreign policy is much closer to your own views and temperament (and to TNR's, generally-I'm equally confused by Peretz's support). Is it just because you think he has a better chance of winning?
I understand your confusion as to Peretz's support -- seems pretty counterintuitive. There are differences in their policies, but they are small. This is not a George McCarthy-Hubert Humphrey clash.
The first reason I supported Obama was because of his viability. Since then I have learned to detest Hillary's style of politics. I fear she will become a Democratic George W. Bush -- the spin, the executive overreach, the realpolitik, the loyalty over qualifications. Plus, her voice is irritating.
Well, in that I am in full agreement with you. I'm kind of dumbfounded that Bill actually went on Rush Limbaugh to push Hillary in Texas. Gracious of him, I suppose, in light of Rush's having called him a murderer and his daughter a dog...but how dirty is that?
And, heh, you conflated Eugene McCarthy with George McGovern there. Easy mistake! You're right about the differences being small...but I suspect they'd be bigger if Clinton's position on Iraq hadn't been such a liability to her.
George McCarthy, Eugene McGovern -- they're all liberal pussies. (Just kidding.)
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